What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 11%, implying a 11% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ousmane Dembélé

Closes Oct 31, 2026 (135d) 24h volume $2.3K Open interest $214.2K Event Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

11%

implied YES probability

-2.7pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 26% · Low 1% · 7d +40.0pp · 30d -40.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.