polymarket
Sports
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Lamine Yamal
21%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 32% ·
Low 4%
· 7d -15.8pp
· 30d +228.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner has a current YES price of 0.25, indicating a perceived 25% probability that Lamine Yamal will win. This assessment is informed by known facts about Yamal's performance and achievements in the sport. The market is currently pricing in the possibility of Yamal winning based on his past successes and current form. A change in this assessment would require new information or developments that impact Yamal's chances of winning, such as an injury or a significant improvement from another contender.
Generated Jul 28, 2026
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