What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kylian Mbappé

Closes Oct 31, 2026 (135d) 24h volume $10.2K Open interest $214.2K Event Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

12%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 26% · Low 8% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d 0.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.