polymarket
Sports
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Lionel Messi
3%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 48 days ·
High 45% ·
Low 3%
· 7d -8.6pp
· 30d -62.6pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market on whether Lionel Messi will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or currently indicates a 3% probability of his victory, with a YES price of 0.03. This assessment is based on known facts about Messi's performance and achievements in recent years, as well as the general perception of his chances among sports enthusiasts and experts. The market will close on October 31, 2026, at which point it will be resolved according to the officially announced winner of the Ballon d'Or award. If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other". Any significant changes in Messi's form or performance, as well as any unexpected developments that might impact his chances of winning the award, could potentially influence the price of this prediction market.
Generated Jul 28, 2026
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