What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 04, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Closes Oct 04, 2026 (63d) 24h volume $12.0K Open interest $4.0M Event Brazil Presidential Election

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 0% · Low 0% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -66.7pp

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for Eduardo Bolsonaro's chances in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election currently reflects a 0% probability of his victory, as indicated by a YES price of $0.00. This assessment is based on current information and available data. The market will resolve according to the outcome of the election, which is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. Any changes in Bolsonaro's political standing or developments that impact his campaign could potentially influence the YES price, causing it to rise if his chances improve or fall if they deteriorate. Conversely, a decline in his popularity or emergence of strong challengers could lead to a decrease in the YES price.

Generated Jul 23, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.