Target transactions change in Q3 2026
50/50 line50%Above 4%
Line nearest 50/50
50%
Market median
4.125%
Biggest 24h move+14 pts
27%
24h volume
$3K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 0%
98%
-1
Above 2.5%
85%
+20
Above 4%
50%
+10
Above 4.5%
48%
+24
Above 5%
27%
+14
Above 9%
2%
-2
What the market expects
median 4.125%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 0%YES $7K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $7K
- Above 9%YES $0 · NO $4K · 1 orders · biggest $4K
- Above 2.5%YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026 YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9% | NO | 96¢ | $4K | |
| comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026 | YES | 57¢ | $1K | |
| Above 2.5% | YES | 68¢ | $1K | |
| Above 0% | YES | 94¢ | $7K |
All outcomes
6| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0% | 98% | -1.0 | $2K | $8K |
| Above 2.5% | 85% | +20.0 | $62 | $2K |
| Above 4% | 50% | +10.0 | $81 | $1K |
| Above 4.5% | 48% | +24.5 | $273 | $2K |
| Above 5% | 27% | +14.0 | $600 | $847 |
| Above 9% | 2% | -2.0 | $51 | $4K |