P PolymarketTech & AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

12 outcomesSettles Nov 01, 2026 (12d)

Embed these odds

Paste this into any web page or blog post. The odds refresh every minute.

Theme
Preview
Favorite39%October 20
Favorite
39%
October 20
Runner-up
19%
October 22
Biggest 24h move+10 pts
19%
October 22
24h volume
$29K
$259K open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

12
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
October 20 39% -2.5 $5K $22K
October 22 19% +10.4 $7K $22K
No release by October 31 14% -4.3 $3K $22K
October 27 11% +5.6 $4K $22K
October 21 4% -7.0 $1K $22K
October 24 4% +1.3 $389 $22K
October 23 3% -3.8 $423 $22K
October 19 2% +1.8 $2K $22K
October 26 2% — $1K $22K
October 28 1% — $2K $22K
October 29 0% -1.1 $2K $22K
October 31 0% — $696 $22K

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.