Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

6 outcomesSettles Dec 31, 2026 (73d)

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Preview
50/50 line39%December 31, 2026
Line nearest 50/50
39%
December 31, 2026
Runner-up
26%
November 30, 2026
Biggest 24h move+4 pts
39%
December 31, 2026
24h volume
$17K
$524K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

6
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
December 31, 2026 39% +4.5 $12K $87K
November 30, 2026 26% +2.5 $2K $87K
October 31, 2026 8% +2.5 $4K $87K
September 24, 2026 0% -12.4 $0 $87K
September 30, 2026 0% -4.3 $0 $87K
October 5, 2026 0% -0.5 $0 $87K

How it settles

On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entiti

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