Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

5 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (73d)

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Preview
50/50 line28%December 31
Line nearest 50/50
28%
December 31
Runner-up
19%
November 30
Biggest 24h move-4 pts
28%
December 31
24h volume
$142K
$616K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

5
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
December 31 28% -4.0 $92K $123K
November 30 19% -4.5 $483 $123K
October 31 5% -2.7 $49K $123K
September 30 0% — $0 $123K
October 15 0% -4.3 $0 $123K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

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