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Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

31 outcomesSettles Nov 01, 2026 (12d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line50%October 19
Line nearest 50/50
50%
October 19
Runner-up
100%
October 7
Biggest 24h move+7 pts
64%
October 29
24h volume
$91K
$561K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
October 5 100% +46
October 7 100% +31
October 9 100% +44
October 10 100% +33
October 13 100% +62
October 6 94% +14
October 16 86% +16
October 17 86% +22
October 18 85% +7
October 23 74% +2
October 8 73% -2
October 21 72% +3
October 20 71% +2

+ 17 more in the table below.

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

31
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
October 5 100% +46.0 $0 $18K
October 7 100% +30.8 $0 $18K
October 9 100% +44.0 $0 $18K
October 10 100% +32.9 $0 $18K
October 13 100% +62.4 $0 $18K
October 6 94% +14.0 $246 $18K
October 16 86% +16.0 $27 $18K
October 17 86% +22.0 $164 $18K
October 18 85% +7.0 $114 $18K
October 11 77% +0.5 $0 $18K
October 23 74% +1.5 $2K $18K
October 8 73% -2.5 $5 $18K
October 21 72% +3.0 $102 $18K
October 20 71% +2.0 $309 $18K
October 25 70% -4.0 $706 $18K
October 22 70% +2.5 $1K $18K
October 26 70% +4.5 $25 $18K
October 24 70% -0.5 $92 $18K
October 27 67% +3.5 $318 $18K
October 30 66% -1.5 $475 $18K
October 29 64% +7.0 $83K $18K
October 28 62% -1.0 $350 $18K
October 4 59% -20.3 $0 $18K
October 31 56% -3.5 $2K $18K
October 14 56% -3.5 $0 $18K
October 12 56% +0.5 $0 $18K
October 15 52% -2.0 $0 $18K
October 19 50% -13.0 $20 $18K
October 1 0% — $0 $18K
October 2 0% -14.3 $0 $18K
October 3 0% -77.8 $0 $18K

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calenda

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