Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/no+ 17 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
31| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 5 | 100% | +46.0 | $0 | $18K |
| October 7 | 100% | +30.8 | $0 | $18K |
| October 9 | 100% | +44.0 | $0 | $18K |
| October 10 | 100% | +32.9 | $0 | $18K |
| October 13 | 100% | +62.4 | $0 | $18K |
| October 6 | 94% | +14.0 | $246 | $18K |
| October 16 | 86% | +16.0 | $27 | $18K |
| October 17 | 86% | +22.0 | $164 | $18K |
| October 18 | 85% | +7.0 | $114 | $18K |
| October 11 | 77% | +0.5 | $0 | $18K |
| October 23 | 74% | +1.5 | $2K | $18K |
| October 8 | 73% | -2.5 | $5 | $18K |
| October 21 | 72% | +3.0 | $102 | $18K |
| October 20 | 71% | +2.0 | $309 | $18K |
| October 25 | 70% | -4.0 | $706 | $18K |
| October 22 | 70% | +2.5 | $1K | $18K |
| October 26 | 70% | +4.5 | $25 | $18K |
| October 24 | 70% | -0.5 | $92 | $18K |
| October 27 | 67% | +3.5 | $318 | $18K |
| October 30 | 66% | -1.5 | $475 | $18K |
| October 29 | 64% | +7.0 | $83K | $18K |
| October 28 | 62% | -1.0 | $350 | $18K |
| October 4 | 59% | -20.3 | $0 | $18K |
| October 31 | 56% | -3.5 | $2K | $18K |
| October 14 | 56% | -3.5 | $0 | $18K |
| October 12 | 56% | +0.5 | $0 | $18K |
| October 15 | 52% | -2.0 | $0 | $18K |
| October 19 | 50% | -13.0 | $20 | $18K |
| October 1 | 0% | — | $0 | $18K |
| October 2 | 0% | -14.3 | $0 | $18K |
| October 3 | 0% | -77.8 | $0 | $18K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calenda
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.