P PolymarketTech & AI

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

6 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (73d)

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50/50 line26%Saudi Arabia
Line nearest 50/50
26%
Saudi Arabia
Runner-up
8%
China
Biggest 24h move+8 pts
26%
Saudi Arabia
24h volume
$13K
$189K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

6
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Saudi Arabia 26% +8.0 $9K $31K
China 8% — $97 $31K
Russia 6% -4.0 $4K $31K
Anthropic 4% — $50 $31K
Meta 4% — $51 $31K
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk 3% — $51 $31K

How it settles

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.

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