Will the California High-Speed Rail Authority announce that permanent mainline track installation on the Central Valley high-speed rail guideway has physically begun (rail laid on the running alignment, not materials staging, railhead or yard trackwork, or a declared "track-laying phase") before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes
Settles Jan 01, 2027 (70d) All outcomes: Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

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chance of YES60% +0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
58–68%
30d +0 pts · 7d +0 pts
24h volume
79
$1 contracts
Open interest
7.0K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

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