What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above $5.90

Settles Oct 31, 2026 (7d) All outcomes: Diesel prices in Oct 2026

chance of YES98% +0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

72–98%

· 7d +14 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.