What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 24%, implying a 24% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above $6.36

Settles Oct 26, 2026 (2d) All outcomes: Diesel prices this week

chance of YES24% +17.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

8–46%

24h volume

523

$1 contracts

Open interest

890

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.