What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 45%, implying a 45% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Feb 25, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 15.5 billion

Settles Feb 25, 2027 (125d) All outcomes: Altria Group cigarette shipments in Q3

chance of YES45% +33.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

19–44%

· 7d +15 pts

24h volume

130

$1 contracts

Open interest

776

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.