What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 48%, implying a 48% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

The Carlyle Group

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (70d) All outcomes: Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

chance of YES48% +16.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

7–52%

24h volume

394

$1 contracts

Open interest

689

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.