What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Health

In 2026

Closes Jan 31, 2027 (228d) 24h volume 13 Open interest 4.3K Event Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?

16%

implied YES probability

Last 64 days · High 36% · Low 10% · 7d +50.0pp · 30d -30.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.