What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2030. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Health

Before 2030

Closes Jan 01, 2030 (1271d) 24h volume 15 Open interest 17.2K Event Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

implied YES probability

+4.8pp 24h

Last 35 days · High 11% · Low 4% · 7d +105.8pp · 30d +52.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.