What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 02, 2026 (2d) All outcomes: The Mongoose · Rotten Tomatoes score

chance of YES94% +34.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

38–93%

24h volume

13.0K

$1 contracts

Open interest

7.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$3K

40% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 3:49 PM ET	YES	91¢	1,287	$1K
Oct 28, 5:22 PM ET	NO	66¢	2,704	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.