What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

K KalshiCrypto

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027? Live crypto prices

chance of YES4% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

1–9%

30d -33 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

1.7K

$1 contracts

Open interest

231.5K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

4¢ / 5¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 4.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 29, 10:13 PM ET	NO	96¢	1,350	$1K
Oct 28, 1:06 AM ET	NO	96¢	5,714	$5K
Oct 26, 5:26 PM ET	NO	96¢	1,425	$1K
Oct 25, 2:57 PM ET	NO	94¢	1,332	$1K
Oct 19, 12:47 AM ET	NO	96¢	3,636	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.