What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Crypto

Before 2027

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 190 Open interest 47.3K Event Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 82 days · High 8% · Low 4% · 7d -42.9pp · 30d -33.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.