What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (59d) All outcomes: Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

chance of YES36% +22.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

8–16%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

218

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.