What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Lautaro Martinez

Closes Oct 31, 2026 (135d) 24h volume $272 Open interest $214.2K Event Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 69 days · High 4% · Low 0% · 7d -13.8pp · 30d +150.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Other outcomes in this event

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.