Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

The prediction market on whether Raphinha will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or reflects a consensus that his chances of winning are currently extremely low, with a YES price of 0.00 implying a probability of zero. This assessment is informed by the fact that Raphinha has not yet demonstrated the level of performance required to be considered a top contender for the award. The market's current pricing suggests that other factors, such as team and individual performances over the next two years, will likely play a significant role in determining the winner. Any changes to these underlying dynamics could potentially impact the price, with an increase in Raphinha's performance or achievements leading to a higher YES price, while a decline in his form or the emergence of other strong contenders could result in a lower price or even a shift towards the NO outcome.