June 2026 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities

June 16–17, 2026 · decision Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 2:00 PM ET · with economic projections (dot plot)

decided All meetings Fed Watch
Decision
Held
June 17, 2026
Target range after
3.50–3.75%
unchanged
Priced the day before
93%
odds of Hold · Jun 16, 2026
A week before
100%
odds of Hold · Jun 10, 2026

The decision

priced Jun 16, 2026

On June 17, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.

>25bp cut0%
25bp cut7%
Hold DECISION93%
25bp hike0%
>25bp hike0%

Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.

How the market priced it

WhenDate25bp cutHold25bp hikeDecision oddsImplied
A month beforeMay 180%95%5%95%+1 bp
A week beforeJun 100%100%0%100%0 bp
The day beforeJun 167%93%0%93%−2 bp

Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (Hold).

Odds in the run-up

25bp cutHold25bp hike
Hold 93%25bp cut 7%
Weekly readings (47 weeks, newest first)
Week ending25bp cutHold25bp hikeImpliedEFFR after
Jun 16, 20267%93%0%−2 bp3.613%
Jun 12, 20260%100%0%0 bp3.620%
Jun 5, 20260%98%2%+1 bp3.626%
May 29, 20260%95%5%+1 bp3.631%
May 22, 20260%95%5%+1 bp3.631%
May 15, 20269%91%0%−2 bp3.607%
May 8, 20265%95%0%−1 bp3.619%
May 1, 20265%95%0%−1 bp3.628%
Apr 24, 20265%95%0%−1 bp3.634%
Apr 17, 20265%95%0%−1 bp3.634%
Apr 10, 20260%100%0%0 bp3.645%
Apr 3, 20265%95%0%−1 bp3.634%
Mar 26, 20260%82%18%+5 bp3.706%
Mar 20, 20260%95%5%+1 bp3.692%
Mar 13, 202618%82%0%−5 bp3.579%
Mar 6, 202632%68%0%−8 bp3.514%
Feb 27, 202642%58%0%−10 bp3.471%
Feb 20, 202642%58%0%−10 bp3.491%
Feb 13, 202655%45%0%−14 bp3.421%
Feb 6, 202660%40%0%−15 bp3.395%
Jan 30, 202655%45%0%−14 bp3.417%
Jan 23, 202646%54%0%−12 bp3.445%
Jan 16, 202642%58%0%−10 bp3.441%
Jan 9, 202651%49%0%−13 bp3.393%
Jan 2, 202655%45%0%−14 bp3.301%
Dec 26, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.292%
Dec 19, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.281%
Dec 12, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.313%
Dec 5, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.323%
Nov 28, 202560%40%0%−15 bp3.295%
Nov 21, 202565%35%0%−16 bp3.279%
Nov 14, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.361%
Nov 7, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.296%
Oct 31, 202560%40%0%−15 bp3.350%
Oct 24, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.163%
Oct 17, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.111%
Oct 10, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.176%
Oct 3, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.218%
Sep 26, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.313%
Sep 19, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.187%
Sep 12, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.156%
Sep 5, 202565%35%0%−16 bp3.094%
Aug 29, 202565%35%0%−16 bp3.244%
Aug 22, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.261%
Aug 15, 202560%40%0%−15 bp3.335%
Aug 8, 202551%49%0%−13 bp3.323%
Aug 1, 202555%45%0%−14 bp3.272%

Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 30, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.

Meeting details

Dates
June 16–17, 2026
Statement
2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Press conference
2:30 PM ET
Projections
Yes: Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot
Minutes
About three weeks after the decision, around Jul 8, 2026

Other meetings

Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.

Questions

What did the Fed decide at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?

On June 17, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.

Did markets expect the June 2026 Fed decision?

Yes. The day before (June 16, 2026), Fed Funds futures priced a 93% chance of no change. A week before, the odds of no change were 100%.

How are these probabilities calculated?

Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.