September 2026 FOMC Meeting: Rate Decision and Probabilities
September 15–16, 2026 · decision Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 2:00 PM ET · with economic projections (dot plot)
The decision
priced Sep 15, 2026On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, from 3.50–3.75%.
Bars: the futures-implied odds at the last close before the meeting.
How the market priced it
| When | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Decision odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A month before | Aug 17 | 0% | 66% | 34% | 34% | +9 bp |
| A week before | Sep 9 | 0% | 40% | 60% | 60% | +15 bp |
| The day before | Sep 15 | 0% | 8% | 92% | 92% | +23 bp |
Futures-implied odds at the close on or before each date. Decision odds is the probability the market gave the outcome that happened (25bp hike).
Odds in the run-up
Weekly readings (53 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | 25bp hike | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | 0% | 8% | 92% | +23 bp | 3.860% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 0% | 12% | 88% | +22 bp | 3.850% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 0% | 42% | 58% | +14 bp | 3.775% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 0% | 44% | 56% | +14 bp | 3.769% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 0% | 61% | 39% | +10 bp | 3.726% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 0% | 66% | 34% | +9 bp | 3.716% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 0% | 53% | 47% | +12 bp | 3.748% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 0% | 31% | 69% | +17 bp | 3.801% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 0% | 27% | 73% | +18 bp | 3.902% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 0% | 49% | 51% | +13 bp | 3.789% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 0% | 49% | 51% | +13 bp | 3.839% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 0% | 57% | 43% | +11 bp | 3.782% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 0% | 57% | 43% | +11 bp | 3.812% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 0% | 49% | 51% | +13 bp | 3.859% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 0% | 79% | 21% | +5 bp | 3.699% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 0% | 70% | 30% | +8 bp | 3.730% |
| May 29, 2026 | 0% | 83% | 17% | +4 bp | 3.688% |
| May 22, 2026 | 0% | 70% | 30% | +8 bp | 3.750% |
| May 15, 2026 | 0% | 83% | 17% | +4 bp | 3.678% |
| May 8, 2026 | 0% | 96% | 4% | +1 bp | 3.611% |
| May 1, 2026 | 4% | 96% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.604% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 13% | 87% | 0% | −3 bp | 3.573% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 17% | 83% | 0% | −4 bp | 3.557% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 4% | 96% | 0% | −1 bp | 3.624% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 0% | 96% | 4% | +1 bp | 3.646% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 0% | 83% | 17% | +4 bp | 3.758% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 0% | 87% | 13% | +3 bp | 3.722% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 17% | 83% | 0% | −4 bp | 3.497% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 39% | 61% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.344% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 56% | 44% | 0% | −14 bp | 3.226% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 51% | 49% | 0% | −13 bp | 3.266% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 56% | 44% | 0% | −14 bp | 3.176% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.203% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.223% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.299% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 39% | 61% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.284% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.229% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.139% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.134% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.124% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 30% | 70% | 0% | −7 bp | 3.165% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 30% | 70% | 0% | −7 bp | 3.175% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 39% | 61% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.104% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.073% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 39% | 61% | 0% | −10 bp | 3.174% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 34% | 66% | 0% | −9 bp | 3.124% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 43% | 57% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.158% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 52% | 48% | 0% | −13 bp | 2.955% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 2.910% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 50% | 50% | 0% | −12 bp | 2.965% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 3.020% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 46% | 54% | 0% | −11 bp | 3.120% |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 48% | 52% | 0% | −12 bp | 2.985% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Sep 17, 2025; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- September 15–16, 2026
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, September 16, 2026
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- Yes: Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Oct 7, 2026
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
What did the Fed decide at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, from 3.50–3.75%.
Did markets expect the September 2026 Fed decision?
Yes. The day before (September 15, 2026), Fed Funds futures priced a 92% chance of a 25 bp hike. A week before, the odds of a 25 bp hike were 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.