July 2027 FOMC Meeting: Rate Probabilities
July 27–28, 2027 · decision Wednesday, July 28, 2027, 2:00 PM ET
Odds now
liveProbabilities implied by 30-day Fed Funds futures (/ZQ), the same numbers as Fed Watch.
How the odds have moved
change in Hold odds| Reading | Date | 25bp cut | Hold | Change | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Nov 10 | 15% | 85% | — | −4 bp |
| Previous close | Nov 9 | 7% | 93% | −8 pts | −2 bp |
| 1 week earlier | Nov 3 | 5% | 95% | −9 pts | −1 bp |
| 1 month earlier | Oct 9 | 4% | 96% | −11 pts | −1 bp |
Earlier readings are the futures-implied odds at each day’s close. Change is the move in the odds of today’s likeliest outcome; Implied is the expected rate change at the meeting.
Odds since Jul 29, 2026
Weekly readings (16 weeks, newest first)
| Week ending | 25bp cut | Hold | Implied | EFFR after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 (live) | 15% | 85% | −4 bp | 4.370% |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 9% | 91% | −2 bp | 4.335% |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 12% | 88% | −3 bp | 4.445% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8% | 92% | −2 bp | 4.525% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 7% | 93% | −2 bp | 4.570% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 4.640% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 3% | 97% | −1 bp | 4.680% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 6% | 94% | −1 bp | 4.745% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 5% | 95% | −1 bp | 4.665% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 5% | 95% | −1 bp | 4.550% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 4% | 96% | −1 bp | 4.235% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 5% | 95% | −1 bp | 4.230% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% | −1 bp | 4.075% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% | −1 bp | 4.010% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 9% | 91% | −2 bp | 4.055% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 7% | 93% | −2 bp | 4.170% |
Each day’s close of the futures-implied odds for this meeting, ending on the live reading. The futures price a meeting from about a year out, so this meeting’s history starts Jul 29, 2026; the daily record on this site starts July 30, 2025.
Meeting details
- Dates
- July 27–28, 2027
- Statement
- 2:00 PM ET, Wednesday, July 28, 2027
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM ET
- Projections
- No (published in March, June, September and December)
- Minutes
- About three weeks after the decision, around Aug 18, 2027
Other meetings
Every meeting since September 2025, with the decision and the odds before it, is on the FOMC meetings page. Live odds for all upcoming meetings, the implied rate path and the futures strip are on Fed Watch.
Questions
When is the July 2027 FOMC meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 27–28, 2027. The rate decision and statement come at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, July 28, 2027, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
What are the odds of a rate cut at the July 2027 Fed meeting?
As of November 10, 2026, Fed Funds futures (/ZQ) price an 85% chance of no change and a 15% chance of a 25 bp cut at the July 2027 meeting, an expected change of −4 bp. The target range is currently 3.75–4.00%.
How have the odds for the July 2027 FOMC meeting changed?
The odds of no change are 85% as of November 10, 2026; a week earlier (Nov 3, 2026) they were 95%; a month earlier (Oct 9, 2026) they were 96%. The daily record for this meeting starts July 29, 2026.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each 30-day Fed Funds futures contract (/ZQ) settles at 100 minus the average effective federal funds rate (EFFR) over its month. The contract for the meeting month, or for the next month without a meeting, gives the rate the market expects after the decision. The gap from the rate going in, measured against 25 bp steps, is split into probabilities for each outcome.