Sephora Credit Card Spend in October

4 outcomesSettles Nov 07, 2026 (6d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line44%Above 114
Line nearest 50/50
44%
Above 114
Market median
113.083
even odds of landing above or below
Biggest 24h move+10 pts
86%
Above 108
24h volume
$5K
$21K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Above 108 86% +10
Above 110 68% +2
Above 114 44% +6
Above 121 2% -2

What the market expects

median 113.083

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

Odds over time

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Above 114
    YES $2K · NO $2K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 110
    YES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 108
    YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Above 110YES 75¢$2K
Above 108YES 76¢$1K
Above 114NO 43¢$2K
Above 114YES 48¢$2K

All outcomes

4
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Above 108 86% +10.0 $2K $3K
Above 110 68% +2.5 $2K $5K
Above 114 44% +5.5 $2K $10K
Above 121 2% -2.5 $18 $3K