What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 44%, implying a 44% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 07, 2026 (6d) All outcomes: Sephora Credit Card Spend in October

chance of YES44% +5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

22–97%

· 7d -49 pts

24h volume

1.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

9.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$3K

45% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 28, 4:31 AM ET	NO	43¢	4,379	$2K
Oct 25, 9:29 PM ET	YES	48¢	3,219	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.