OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
50/50 line65%Above 186T tokens
Line nearest 50/50
65%
Market median
188T
Biggest 24h move+52 pts
70%
24h volume
$20K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 160T tokens
100%
Above 158T tokens
99%
+7
Above 166T tokens
99%
+3
Above 162T tokens
99%
+2
Above 172T tokens
96%
+1
Above 174T tokens
88%
-1
Above 180T tokens
86%
+16
Above 176T tokens
85%
-12
Above 178T tokens
76%
-8
Above 182T tokens
74%
+31
Above 188T tokens
70%
+52
+ 2 more in the table below.
What the market expects
median 188TChance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 160T tokensYES $6K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $6K
- Above 156T tokensYES $4K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 172T tokensYES $2K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $1K
- Above 168T tokensYES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 162T tokensYES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 158T tokensYES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 166T tokensYES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- Above 164T tokensYES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 168T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 172T tokens | YES | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 164T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $1K | |
| Above 162T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 166T tokens | YES | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 160T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $6K | |
| Above 158T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 156T tokens | YES | 99¢ | $3K | |
| Above 156T tokens | YES | 95¢ | $1K | |
| Above 172T tokens | YES | 74¢ | $1K |
All outcomes
16| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 160T tokens | 100% | — | $6K | $7K |
| Above 156T tokens | 99% | — | $31 | $5K |
| Above 164T tokens | 99% | — | $1K | $2K |
| Above 158T tokens | 99% | +7.0 | $2K | $3K |
| Above 166T tokens | 99% | +3.0 | $3K | $2K |
| Above 162T tokens | 99% | +2.0 | $2K | $2K |
| Above 168T tokens | 99% | — | $2K | $2K |
| Above 172T tokens | 96% | +1.0 | $2K | $3K |
| Above 174T tokens | 88% | -1.0 | $92 | $108 |
| Above 180T tokens | 86% | +15.5 | $74 | $96 |
| Above 176T tokens | 85% | -12.0 | $44 | $42 |
| Above 178T tokens | 76% | -7.5 | $741 | $161 |
| Above 182T tokens | 74% | +31.0 | $64 | $104 |
| Above 188T tokens | 70% | +51.5 | $966 | $100 |
| Above 184T tokens | 68% | -2.5 | $29 | $30 |
| Above 186T tokens | 65% | -9.0 | $204 | $5 |