10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 9, 2026?
50/50 line50%5.27% or above
Line nearest 50/50
50%
Runner-up
92%
Biggest 24h move-47 pts
20%
24h volume
$3K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/no5.11% or above
94%
+6
5.13% or above
92%
+12
5.15% or above
86%
+6
5.19% or above
84%
+13
5.17% or above
84%
+8
5.21% or above
78%
+19
5.23% or above
75%
+11
5.25% or above
72%
+22
5.27% or above
50%
-14
5.29% or above
44%
-4
5.31% or above
40%
-14
5.33% or above
35%
-12
5.35% or above
20%
-47
5.37% or above
18%
-4
Odds over time
hourlyHourly closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
14| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.11% or above | 94% | +6.5 | $20 | $100 |
| 5.13% or above | 92% | +12.0 | $10 | $100 |
| 5.15% or above | 86% | +6.0 | $100 | $200 |
| 5.19% or above | 84% | +13.0 | $551 | $551 |
| 5.17% or above | 84% | +7.5 | $66 | $166 |
| 5.21% or above | 78% | +19.0 | $278 | $278 |
| 5.23% or above | 75% | +11.0 | $100 | $5 |
| 5.25% or above | 72% | +22.0 | $206 | $204 |
| 5.27% or above | 50% | -13.5 | $23 | $1K |
| 5.29% or above | 44% | -4.5 | $8 | $383 |
| 5.31% or above | 40% | -13.5 | $3 | $729 |
| 5.33% or above | 35% | -12.0 | $424 | $429 |
| 5.35% or above | 20% | -47.0 | $616 | $1K |
| 5.37% or above | 18% | -4.5 | $114 | $366 |