France declares state of emergency by...?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
3| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8% | — | $12K | $204K |
| October 31 | 1% | -1.1 | $11K | $204K |
| October 21 | 0% | — | $0 | $204K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.