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Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (61d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line10%December 31
Line nearest 50/50
10%
December 31
Runner-up
1%
October 31
Biggest 24h move
—
odds steady over the last day
24h volume
$2K
$6K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

2
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
December 31 10% — $2K $3K
October 31 1% — $179 $3K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

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