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Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

14 outcomesSettles Nov 01, 2026 (0d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line51%October 31
Line nearest 50/50
51%
October 31
Runner-up
95%
October 4
Biggest 24h move+9 pts
100%
October 27
24h volume
$2K
$148K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
October 27 100% +9
October 29 56% +23
October 31 51% +2
October 26 49% +10
October 25 30% +16
October 18 20% +3
October 30 16% -38
October 2 8% +1

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

14
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
October 27 100% +8.9 $592 $11K
October 4 95% — $50 $11K
October 5 92% — $197 $11K
October 29 56% +23.0 $226 $11K
October 31 51% +2.0 $5 $11K
October 26 49% +10.5 $143 $11K
October 25 30% +15.5 $147 $11K
October 18 20% +2.7 $32 $11K
October 30 16% -38.0 $104 $11K
October 2 8% +1.0 $25 $11K
October 28 8% +0.5 $94 $11K
October 22 7% -1.0 $37 $10K
October 24 7% -6.5 $20 $11K
October 15 3% -7.3 $362 $11K

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totali

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