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Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

2 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2028 (426d)

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50/50 line68%No Next Chancellor before 2028
Line nearest 50/50
68%
No Next Chancellor before 2028
Runner-up
7%
Markus Söder
Biggest 24h move+4 pts
68%
No Next Chancellor before 2028
24h volume
$5K
$28K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

2
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
No Next Chancellor before 2028 68% +4.5 $4K $14K
Markus Söder 7% — $63 $14K

How it settles

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.