Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

10 outcomesSettles Apr 19, 2027 (169d)

Embed these odds

Paste this into any web page or blog post. The odds refresh every minute.

Theme
Preview
50/50 line44%Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Line nearest 50/50
44%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Runner-up
44%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Biggest 24h move-4 pts
44%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
24h volume
$14K
$2.2M open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

10
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Marine Le Pen 88% -1.0 $1K $223K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 44% -4.5 $947 $223K
Édouard Philippe 34% -0.5 $246 $223K
Other 32% +0.5 $20 $223K
David Lisnard 20% +3.1 $12K $223K
Raphaël Glucksmann 10% — $60 $223K
Jordan Bardella 6% — $50 $223K
Bruno Retailleau 6% — $72 $223K
Laurent Wauquiez 5% -2.6 $8 $219K
François Ruffin 4% — $230 $221K

How it settles

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.