US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

11 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (60d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line74%December 31
Line nearest 50/50
74%
December 31
Runner-up
100%
September 22
Biggest 24h move-6 pts
82%
November 30
24h volume
$2K
$179K open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
October 9 100%
October 12 100% +3
October 18 100% +1
December 31 74% +24

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

11
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
October 31 100% +0.8 $0 $16K
September 22 100% +0.8 $0 $16K
September 25 100% — $0 $16K
September 30 100% — $0 $16K
October 9 100% — $0 $16K
October 15 100% — $0 $16K
October 12 100% +2.9 $0 $16K
October 18 100% +1.1 $0 $16K
October 21 100% — $0 $16K
November 30 82% -6.0 $2K $16K
December 31 74% +24.5 $453 $16K

How it settles

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution

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