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Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

9 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2028 (426d)

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Favorite69%UAE
Favorite
69%
UAE
Runner-up
9%
Switzerland
Biggest 24h move-2 pts
69%
UAE
24h volume
$4K
$144K open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

9
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
UAE 69% -2.0 $2K $16K
Switzerland 9% +4.5 $298 $16K
Turkey 5% -9.4 $314 $16K
No Talks by December 31, 2027 5% — $280 $16K
USA 2% +1.2 $21 $16K
Other - Europe 1% — $50 $16K
China 1% +0.8 $985 $16K
Serbia 0% — $1 $16K
Vatican City 0% — $126 $16K

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any count

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