Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

4 outcomesSettles Nov 04, 2026 (3d) Polls & election odds

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Theme
Preview
Favorite71%Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
Favorite
71%
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
Runner-up
28%
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
Biggest 24h move+5 pts
71%
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
24h volume
$19K
$248K open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

4
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 71% +4.8 $2K $62K
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 28% -3.5 $10K $62K
Oil < $80; R Senate 1% — $4K $62K
Oil < $80; D Senate 1% — $3K $62K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Oil < $80; R Senate" if oil is less than $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $80; D Senate" if oil is less than $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $80; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $80; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the most recent prior trading day. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures E

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.