Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Favorite3%Yes
Favorite
3%
Runner-up
—
Biggest 24h move
—
24h volume
$11K
Current odds
one winnerOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
1| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 3% | — | $11K | $1.5M |
How it settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.