polymarket
Crypto
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
7%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 10% ·
Low 6%
· 7d -11.5pp
· 30d -18.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Highest opening values in two weeks
Yahoo Finance · 17h ago
Trade on Polymarket
Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.