What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 60%, implying a 60% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: AZ-02 House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES60% -5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

60–78%

30d -8 pts · 7d -10 pts

24h volume

16.2K

$1 contracts

Open interest

29.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$12K

54% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 11:31 PM ET	NO	38¢	15,071	$6K
Oct 27, 7:17 PM ET	YES	71¢	2,739	$2K
Oct 22, 6:38 PM ET	YES	65¢	7,164	$5K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.