What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 46%, implying a 46% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: ME-02 House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES46% +1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

33–54%

30d +22 pts · 7d +2 pts

24h volume

7.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

87.8K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

42¢ / 43¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 42.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 9:28 AM ET	YES	44¢	3,280	$1K
Oct 29, 10:06 PM ET	NO	58¢	4,406	$3K
Oct 29, 1:03 PM ET	NO	58¢	3,371	$2K
Oct 28, 3:05 PM ET	YES	44¢	4,406	$2K
Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET	NO	57¢	3,371	$2K
Oct 22, 9:21 AM ET	YES	42¢	5,185	$2K
Oct 21, 8:32 PM ET	NO	60¢	1,667	$1K
Oct 21, 2:11 PM ET	YES	42¢	6,000	$3K
Oct 20, 10:05 PM ET	NO	63¢	2,276	$1K
Oct 20, 5:44 PM ET	NO	64¢	29,204	$19K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.