What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 34%, implying a 34% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Sam Forstag

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (380d) All outcomes: MT-01 House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES34% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

28–49%

30d +6 pts · 7d +18 pts

24h volume

4.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

166.6K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

30¢ / 31¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 30.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 18, 3:25 PM ET	YES	33¢	4,341	$1K
Oct 17, 3:58 PM ET	YES	31¢	3,250	$1K
Oct 17, 4:26 AM ET	YES	32¢	10,509	$3K
Oct 16, 1:34 PM ET	YES	31¢	12,308	$4K
Oct 13, 7:14 PM ET	NO	72¢	2,777	$2K
Oct 11, 12:42 AM ET	NO	71¢	4,656	$3K
Oct 10, 5:55 PM ET	YES	32¢	10,000	$3K
Oct 9, 2:20 PM ET	NO	69¢	4,361	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.