What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 44%, implying a 44% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

70¢ or above

Settles Nov 30, 2026 (37d) All outcomes: Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

chance of YES44% -15.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

11–98%

24h volume

418

$1 contracts

Open interest

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.