What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2028 (415d) All outcomes: Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?

chance of YES98% +2.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

5–98%

30d +717 pts · 7d +4 pts

24h volume

9.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

29.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$19K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Nov 10, 4:31 PM ET	YES	99¢	3,331	$3K
Nov 10, 11:21 AM ET	YES	98¢	2,000	$2K
Nov 10, 5:21 AM ET	YES	97¢	1,880	$2K
Nov 9, 7:47 PM ET	YES	98¢	2,000	$2K
Nov 9, 2:22 PM ET	YES	97¢	2,135	$2K
Nov 9, 2:07 PM ET	YES	95¢	4,299	$4K
Nov 6, 5:34 PM ET	YES	94¢	3,610	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.