What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 46%, implying a 46% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: CA-04 House winner? Polls & election odds

chance of YES46% +3.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

18–45%

30d +96 pts · 7d +80 pts

24h volume

3.7K

$1 contracts

Open interest

32.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$6K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 29, 11:39 AM ET	YES	47¢	2,188	$1K
Oct 29, 7:25 AM ET	YES	44¢	2,350	$1K
Oct 29, 7:22 AM ET	YES	53¢	5,421	$3K
Oct 28, 12:24 PM ET	YES	38¢	3,025	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.