What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 20.0%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: DeepSeek market share this week

chance of YES98%

Price range (20h)

88–98%

24h volume

5.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

4.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

hourly, 20h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 21.9%97%17.3K

Above 22.2%90%14.2K

Above 22.4%88%19.9K

Above 22.6%86%27.1K

Above 23.4%64%17.9K

Above 22.9%62%17.8K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 1:25 PM ET	YES	98¢	1,137	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.