What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 44%, implying a 44% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 22.9%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: DeepSeek market share this week

chance of YES44%

Price range (21h)

27–87%

24h volume

17.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

6.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

hourly, 21h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 21.9%98%17.3K

Above 22.2%89%14.2K

Above 22.4%84%19.9K

Above 22.6%81%27.1K

Above 23.4%51%17.7K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 12:04 PM ET	YES	65¢	1,665	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.