What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 21.3%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: DeepSeek market share this week

chance of YES98% +49.5pp in 24h

Price range (20h)

48–97%

24h volume

9.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

5.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$2K

100% on YES

hourly, 20h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 21.9%95%17.3K

Above 22.2%90%14.2K

Above 22.4%88%19.9K

Above 22.6%86%27.1K

Above 23.4%64%17.9K

Above 22.9%62%17.8K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 12:28 PM ET	YES	92¢	1,140	$1K
Oct 5, 6:45 PM ET	YES	86¢	1,276	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.