What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 19%, implying a 19% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 24.6%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: DeepSeek market share this week

chance of YES19%

Price range (18h)

5–18%

24h volume

7.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 18h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 21.9%95%17.3K

Above 22.2%90%14.2K

Above 22.4%88%19.9K

Above 22.6%86%27.1K

Above 23.4%64%17.9K

Above 22.9%62%17.8K